The town hall was meant to be energising. New operating model, new reporting lines, a name for the programme with the word “journey” in it, and a leadership team genuinely excited about what came next. The CEO delivered the vision well — he was good at this — and then opened the floor for questions.
None came. Two hundred people looked back at him with an expression he later described, privately, as the worst audience response of his career. Not anger. Anger he could have worked with. This was something flatter — the polite, exhausted blankness of people who had decided, some time ago, that the announcements no longer had anything to do with them.
Afterwards, a manager who had been with the company eleven years put it in one sentence: “That was the fourth operating model I’ve survived. I’ll wait and see if this one’s real.”
Leaders tend to read that flatness as a character problem — cynicism, resistance, dead wood. It is nothing of the kind. It is a nervous system doing exactly what nervous systems do when change arrives faster than recovery. Your team has not stopped caring because they are weak. They have stopped caring because caring is metabolically expensive, and the account is overdrawn.
The biology of one change too many
The scientific scaffolding here comes from the neuroscientist Bruce McEwen, who spent decades at Rockefeller University studying what stress actually does to bodies and brains. His central concept was allostasis — the process by which an organism achieves stability by changing: mobilising cortisol and adrenaline, redirecting energy, staying adaptively off-balance to meet a demand. Allostasis is healthy. It is what got your ancestors away from the lion and what gets your team through a genuinely urgent quarter.
The trouble is what McEwen called allostatic load: the cumulative wear that accrues when the stress machinery is switched on repeatedly and never fully switched off. Systems built for short emergencies get run as permanent infrastructure. Chronically elevated stress hormones degrade exactly the capacities change programmes depend on — memory, flexible thinking, emotional regulation — while the brain drifts towards threat-detection and away from exploration. An organism under sustained load stops investing in new learning. Not because it decides to. Because the budget for adaptation is spent.
Now translate that into organisational life. Every restructure, systems migration, leadership change, and strategy pivot makes a withdrawal from the same account. Each one, on its own, might be perfectly sensible. But nervous systems do not experience initiatives one at a time on their merits — they experience the sum. And in most large organisations the sum has been rising for years. Gartner’s research put a number on the consequence: the share of employees willing to support enterprise change collapsed from 74 per cent in 2016 to 38 per cent in 2022. That is not a decline in attitude. That is a population-level symptom.
Why unpredictability is the expensive part
Here is the finding leaders most need and least know. The damage done by a stressor is governed less by its size than by its predictability and controllability.
The classic demonstrations come from Jay Weiss’s experiments at Rockefeller in the 1970s. Two rats receive identical electric shocks — same intensity, same number, same schedule. One rat gets a warning tone before each shock; the other gets nothing. The physical stressor is exactly matched, yet the animal that cannot predict the shocks develops dramatically worse stress pathology — ulceration, in those studies — than the one that can. Give the animal a lever that lets it exert some control, and the damage falls further still. The stress that wrecks a system is not the shock. It is the shock that can arrive at any moment, from any direction, with nothing to be done about it.
Your organisation runs this experiment on itself continuously. A restructure that is announced clearly, explained honestly, and executed on the stated timeline is a warned shock — costly, but survivable. The same restructure delivered as a rumour, then a denial, then a Friday-afternoon email, then a “further announcements to follow” silence lasting six weeks, is an unwarned one. The change is identical. The biological price is not remotely.
This is also why middle managers so often fray first. They absorb the unpredictability from above and field the anxiety from below, usually with the least actual control of anyone in the building — the unwarned rat, without the lever, on both sides at once.
Reading the gauge before the engine seizes
Because the account is invisible, most leadership teams discover it is overdrawn only when something expensive fails — the transformation that stalls, the survey that craters, the resignations that arrive in clusters. But the gauge can be read earlier, if you know which instruments to watch.
The first is the one that CEO met at his town hall: the quality of silence. Healthy organisations argue with change — questions, pushback, negotiation over the details. That friction is metabolically expensive, which is exactly why its presence is good news: people are still spending energy on the future. When the questions stop, leaders often report it as progress — “the resistance has died down” — when what has actually died down is engagement. Compliance without curiosity is the single most reliable early marker of an exhausted system.
The second is the fate of discretionary effort. Fatigued teams do not stop working; they stop volunteering. The improvement suggestions dry up, the working groups struggle to fill, the person who always prototyped things in the margins quietly stops. Core delivery holds — often for a long time — while everything adaptive around it goes still. Watch the margins, not the metrics.
The third is language, and it costs nothing to collect. When survey verbatims and corridor talk shift from arguing with the content of changes (“this structure won’t work because…”) to commenting on their volume (“another one”, “flavour of the month”, “I’ll wait for the next reversal”), the organisation is no longer evaluating your initiatives. It is pattern-matching them to a history of churn — the eleven-year manager’s arithmetic, running at scale. At that point no individual change can succeed on its merits, because merits are no longer being assessed.
Read those three gauges honestly and you will know your balance before launching the next withdrawal. Which brings us to managing the account itself.
The Certainty Budget
The practical discipline that falls out of this science is one I ask leadership teams to adopt as a standing practice. Treat your organisation’s capacity for change as a finite budget — because it is one — and manage it with the same rigour you would apply to capital. Four rules govern the account.
Spend on fewer, bigger things. Ten simultaneous initiatives do not cost ten units of adaptation; the interference between them compounds, and each one erodes belief in the others. The manager who has “survived four operating models” is telling you the truth: unfinished change is the most expensive kind, because it debits the account and returns nothing. Before launching anything new, ask the question almost no executive committee asks — what are we stopping to pay for this? If the answer is nothing, you are spending an account you have not checked.
Buy back certainty wherever it is cheap. You can rarely promise people outcomes. You can almost always promise them process — and process is where predictability lives. What is decided, and what genuinely is not yet. When the next real information will come, even if the information is “no news until March”. What will not change — named explicitly, because in a reorganisation the unchanged things vanish from view and the imagination fills the gap with worst cases. A leader who says “here is what I know, here is what I don’t, and I will stand here again in three weeks either way” — and then does — is administering the warning tone. It costs nothing. It changes the physiology of the whole building.
Hand out levers. Control is the other half of Weiss’s result, and even small amounts are disproportionately protective. The destination of a change may be non-negotiable; the route rarely has to be. Teams that get genuine authority over sequencing, local implementation, and the problems only they can see recover faster and resist less — not because participation is a courtesy, but because a nervous system with a lever to pull classifies the situation differently. The consultation must be real. Decorative involvement is detected instantly and billed as betrayal.
Close the loops. Endings are where organisations are worst. Initiatives are launched with fanfare and abandoned in silence; nobody ever stands up to say “that programme is finished — here is what it achieved, here is what we learnt, here is what we are carrying forward”. Every unclosed loop keeps a little of the organisation’s vigilance permanently allocated, waiting for the other shoe. Formally closing changes — including the failed ones, especially the failed ones — returns that capacity to the budget. It is the cheapest credit available to any leadership team, and almost none of them take it.
The leader as nervous-system regulator
Underneath the four rules sits a reframe that changes how the whole job looks. In periods of sustained change, a leadership team’s real product is not the strategy deck. It is the regulatory environment in which two hundred, or twenty thousand, nervous systems will either adapt or defend.
The CEO at that town hall eventually understood this. The recovery took a year and was built of unglamorous material: a public list of initiatives cut from eleven to three, a fixed monthly rhythm of updates that happened whether or not there was news, implementation authority pushed two levels down, and a short, honest funeral for the previous operating model — achievements, lessons, apologies where they were owed. No new vision statement. No journey.
At the next annual town hall, the questions would not stop coming. Some were hard ones. He described it afterwards as the best audience response of his career, and he was right to — because scepticism that speaks is engagement, and the silence he had faced the year before was never resistance at all.
It was two hundred overdrawn accounts, waiting for someone to stop spending. Guard the budget, and the caring comes back on its own. It was never gone — just unaffordable.
David Watts
Keynote speaker, NLP Master Practitioner, and author of Cracking The Influence Code.